Sometime in the next few decades the world’s population, with the exception of Africa, will plateau. Back in 2012 the 15-64 year old age group peaked at 68% of the world’s population. This aging trend will result in developed nations having twice as many old people as children by 2050. Even today 3 countries (Germany, Italy and Japan) have populations where more than 20% are 65+ years of age. In 2020 there will be 13 countries, and in 2030 34 countries.
Some advanced economies have masked this decline by attracting immigrants. As well, many less well-off European countries with low fertility rates are currently suffering a massive brain drain. The population of Bulgaria is expected to drop by 27% by 2060. In the past poorer countries have had larger families, as a hedge against high mortality rates, but as these countries grow wealthier their birth rate declines. Fertility rates head lower while the average age of the population heads up due to rising life expectancy (plus demographically there are more old people).
In modern history this shrinking workforce is unprecedented. The number of likely retirees will grow at more than twice the rate as the labour pool of workers. Over the next two decades 40% of retirees will be in developed countries and in China.
In New Zealand, legal practices will need to think about what these trends mean for them and adapt their practices to an aging workforce. They will need to make fundamental changes to the way they manage clients and employees in the future. As well, the nature of services offered to clients will need to reflect the needs of an aging client base. Firms will find that certain practice areas will grow (investment advice, powers of attorney, estate and trust management, equity release etc.)
Even now, new workers are starting to enter the workforce at a slower rate, while at the same time older employees are wanting to continue working (because they are healthier and also because with their extended lifespans they can’t afford to retire).
A certain number of these older workers will not be able to carry on working, due to health and other reasons. However, more and more people will need to work past retirement age, with many now reporting that locating suitable work is difficult due to age discrimination. A recent survey of American workers found that half of all older workers are expecting to have to undertake some form of paid work in their retirement.
Within law practices, flexible work arrangements will be an important way of keeping older workers engaged for longer periods, while some form of continued engagement will ensure workers do not walk away with decades of experience.
Firms have become accustomed to dictating the terms and conditions of the employment of their workforce. Technology, virtual ways of working and shifting demographics will change this. Firms must be comfortable dealing with many shades of grey. Unless firms adapt, older workers will lose their attachment to a firm that only offers full time employment. Firms need to have a range of arrangements that will keep older workers tethered…
- Flexible work hours
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Role redefinition
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Vocational training and mentorship to manage the transition from full-time work (a period that may be over a decade in length)
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Using modern technology, remote workers and virtual roles.
To peer into our future it is useful to examine the trends in Japan today. For example, Toyota has strict age based retirement policies, however they do re-hire more than half their retirees – offering them more flexible part time work.
The benefits for Toyota:
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Maintain pool of experience
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Retains skills with the company
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Allows more flexible production schedules (they can scale up production during busy periods at little cost)
The benefits for older workers:
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A stream of income in retirement
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Social interaction
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Opportunity to keep using their skills on a part time basis
It is clear that law practitioners in their retirement years will need to make more use of modern technology to achieve a well structured and productive environment. Given a choice between creating a structured work environment or having to shut down a thriving practice, one would probably opt for the structured work environment, especially if simple-to-use technology is readily available and discreet for all involved.
So how can older lawyers use this technology to stay in the workplace longer? And what is the “right” technology to help an older lawyer remain productive?
Look for simple tools with “clean” interfaces that require little or no technical abilities and that assist in the performance of everyday tasks, facilitate supervision without being too invasive, and do not add to the already heavy workloads of team members.
For example software applications that enable –
- Daily tasks or “to do” lists;
- Dictation to send e-mails directly to an assistant;
- Shared calendars that automatically populate daily “to do” lists based on deadlines;
- Reminders, prompts, and timed calendar alerts;
- Practice guidelines and checklists
How law practices adapt to the upcoming demographic changes will determine whether they will thrive, or struggle to remain relevant to an aging workforce and client base.
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